Thus, broad areas of severe to extreme drought (D2 to D3) should continue affecting large areas from the Plains westward through California and the Northwest.Drought in the central High Plains may push eastward into central Kansas early in the period, but any development is not expected to last through October 2020, so no development is depicted on the map.Drought in Hawaii is expected to persist or worsen, expanding into central and southern sections of the Big Island, much of Lanai, and part of south-central Mauai by the end of the period. In addition, numerous experts from agencies and offices across the country are consulted.
Excessive heat and scant precipitation contributed to the recent onset of drought conditions, and precipitation deficits are around 2 to 5 inches in some areas. Share. A major factor in the drought expansion is the likelihood of above normal temperatures during the outlook period. An active monsoon brought rain to the Southwest, substantially improving drought conditions since June 15. Tweet. Edited by Ernst Undesser, AgFax Web Editor, with Information by Rich Tinker, NOAA
Soil Moisture Forecasts. Email. The seasonal drought outlook (SDO) valid from November 15, 2018-February 28, 2019 is based on precipitation outlooks for all time ranges out to a season in advance (Dec-Feb 2018-19), the expectation of a weak El Niño this winter, and consideration of current stream flows and soil moisture. The precipitation forecast through December calls for equal chances of above, below, and near-average conditions, leading to the expectation that drought will persist. Data through December 2013. In addition, drought is forecast to expand into much of central and southwestern Texas, plus a few isolated areas in northwestern Texas, northeastern Colorado, and along the northern reaches of the New Mexico/Arizona border. NOAA Drought Outlook Seasonal – Aug., Sept., Oct. July 17, 2020 Edited by Ernst Undesser, AgFax Web Editor, with Information by Rich Tinker, NOAA. Although drought is not forecast to develop across the Corn Belt and Midwest at the seasonal time scale, these areas will be closely monitored this summer for shorter-term but high impact drought on agriculture. (Click on image to enlarge) PDF Version of Seasonal Drought Outlook Graphic : Latest Seasonal Assessment – Drought coverage continued to increase across the contiguous states during the past month, going from just over 26 percent in mid-December to 33 percent as of January 16, 2018.This increase was driven primarily by broad drought development through the south-central High Plains. Seasonal Drought Outlook depicts large-scale trends based on subjectively derived probabilites guided by short- … In contrast, increasing rainfall across Puerto Rico over the next few months should bring drought improvement (D2) and removal (D1) commonwealth-wide. Soil Moisture Forecasts. Soil moisture anomaly forecast, based on actual conditions and CPC's mid-range forecast. Climate outlooks describe the chances that conditions will be below-normal, near-normal, or above-normal for the outlook period indicated.
But overall, there was more deterioration than improvement. The Outlook predicts whether drought will emerge, stay the same or get better over the next 30 days or so. U.S. Drought Monitor; Arizona Drought Status; New Mexico Drought Status; Arizona Reservoir Volumes; New Mexico Reservoir Volumes; Monsoon Summary; Temperature Outlook; Precipitation Outlook; Seasonal Drought Outlook; El Niño Status and Forecast NOAA Drought Outlook Seasonal – Aug., Sept., Oct. July 17, 2020 Edited by Ernst Undesser, AgFax Web Editor, with Information by Rich Tinker, NOAA. They examine projections from climate and weather models and consider recent trends. The latest seasonal drought outlook from the Climate Prediction Center.